自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

火灾中均布荷载作用下钢筋混凝土方板的极限分析

本文利用有限差分法确定了火灾时钢筋混凝土板的温度分布，并基于塑性铰线理论确定了火灾时钢筋混凝土方板的破坏机制，根据高温下混凝土和钢筋的力学性能对火灾过程中塑性铰截面的弯矩及板的极限荷载进行了分析，可为建筑结构的耐火设计提供依据。     

ISO 14000: A return to command and control?

Over the last few years, commentators on all sides of the environmental debate have (with a few exceptions) joined hands to pillory the traditional model of environmental regulation in this country. The catch phrase “command and control” has become emblematic of everything that was seen as being wrong with the old system. The current push for “reinvention” of environmental regulation reinforces the concept that although traditional methods have produced progress, they have outlived their usefulness. At the same time, ISO 14000 has emerged as one of the hottest topics in the environmental field—a form of reinvention of environmental management that has been embraced by many as the solution to an array of problems. While it is still early in the game, initial results indicate that when used effectively, ISO 14000 can be a powerful tool for the environmental manager. However, misuse of ISO 14000 could represent a throwback to command and control rather than a management tool for the new millennium. This article examines how this new tool fits into the evolving picture of environmental regulation and management.     

安全管理职业化与职业安全管理队伍建设

提出了安全管理职业化的概念，并就建立职业安全管理队伍的措施以及安全管理社会化服务问题进行了讨论。     

矿井重大灾害危险性评价的改进灰色统计法

用灰色统计理论［１］研究了矿井四大灾害即冒顶、水灾、火灾和瓦斯爆炸的危险性预评价问题，提出了一种新的评价方法──灰色统计综合法。同时，从应用的角度出发对灰色统计的算法作了改进，改进后的算法便于记忆和应用。     

采掘诱发地震的成因及对策

根据煤或岩体的赋存特征及采动后的受力特点，将采矿及掘进等工程进行过程中诱发的地震灾害分为三类，即完整煤岩体受压应力作用的失稳、顶底板受拉应力型地震及断层走滑受剪型诱发地震。文章在分别分析其成因的基础上，研究了采矿诱发三种类型地震的发生条件，提出了防治发生诱发地震的对策。     

复杂人——机系统中的人因失误

随着人——机系统变得越来越多，装置的可靠性越来越高，人因失误已成为重要的潜在事故源。本文描述了复杂人——机系统的特征，探讨了该系统中人因失误的定义、分类、数据采集和事故模型。这些研究有助于对人因失误的预测、预防和减少。     

焦化厂蒸氨废水硫化物处理方法探讨

对焦化厂蒸氨废水中的有机物进行了ＧＣ／ＭＳ分析，发现酚类，吲哚，喹啉和硫醇是主要污染物成分。对旨在降低蒸氨废水硫化物含量的各种处理方法进行了比较。采用ＣＷＺ－０１吸附剂的吸附法能使废水中硫化物降至３０ｍｇ／Ｌ以下。     

The influence of degree of substitution on blend miscibility and biodegradation of cellulose acetate blends

In this account, we report our findings on blends of cellulose acetate having a degree of substitution (DS) of 2.49 (CA2.5) with a cellulose acetate having a DS of 2.06 (CA2.0). This blend system was examined over the composition range of 0–100% CA2.0 employing both solvent casting of films (no plasticizer) and thermal processing (melt-compressed films and injection molding) using poly(ethylene glycol) as a common plasticizer. All thermally processed blends were optically clear and showed no loss in optical quality after storage for several months. Thermal analysis and measurement of physical properties indicate that blends in the middle composition range are partially miscible, while those at the ends of the composition range are miscible. We suggest that the miscibility of these cellulose acetate blends is influenced primarily by the monomer composition of the copolymers. Bench-scale simulated municipal composting confirmed the biodestructability of these blends and indicated that incorporation of a plasticizer accelerated the composting rates of the blends.In vitro aerobic biodegradation testing involving radiochemical labeling conclusively demonstrated that both the lower DS CA2.0 and the plasticizer significantly enhanced the biodegradation of the more highly substituted CA2.5.While this work was in progress, Robert Gardner was struck with cancer and died on June 6, 1995. This paper is dedicated to his memory and to his contributions as a friend and colleague.     

Review of information on pesticide residues in the Canadian environment

Summary Pesticide residues in soil, water, food, wildlife and other media have been analysed in several monitoring studies. The purpose was to establish the distribution of these residues across a defined area, ascertain their trend over a specific period and use the results to assess environmental compliance and safety. In the present review the availability of information on pesticide residues in various Canadian environmental components was sought. With the possible exception of localized pesticide contamination of some private water supply wells, ground and surface water, most analyses revealed concentrations below guideline limits. Only a few cases were reported of mishandling, misuse and poisoning from pesticides. Continuing surveillance programmes and in-depth and well-organized monitoring studies, with special focus on areas that are vulnerable to contamination, by both provincial and federal governments, are largely responsible for the encouraging results. This experience in the control of pesticide use and monitoring of residues in the environment should be of particular interest in developing countries.Dr A.Y. Sangodoyin is a senior lecturer in the Department of Agricultural Engineering at the University of Ibadan. He was recently involved in a study visit to the University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6G 2G7, where his co-author Dr D.W. Smith is a member of staff in the Department of Civil-Engineering.